When will it get cold?

My last blog got me thinking – when is it normal to start seeing frosts.

I’m fortunate enough to have access to some pretty snazzy weather models and one of them can pick out the historical data for predetermined weather criteria.

So when have seen more than 4 hours of temperatures below one degree?

Winchester 4 hours below 1 degree

Winchester – Generally not until week 2 or 3 in November, noticeably less since 2010.

Manchester 4 hours below 1 degree

Manchester – Week 2 in November again noticeably less since 2010.

Newquay 4 hours below 1 degree

Newquay – Being as close to the coast as Newquay is seems to keep the temperature much higher during these periods, periods below 1 degree for more than 4 hours are very unusual here.

Sandwich 4 hours below 1 degree

Sandwich – Again a coastal location leading to less periods of low temperature. Week 3 in November is the normal but not much after that.

Inverness 4 hours below 1 degree

Inverness – The furthest North of my quick search shows that these cold snaps are occuring much earlier with week 3 in October not unusual. Interestingly there doesn’t seem to be the shift away from these colder breaks like we’ve seen in the further south inland venues.

To follow on from the last blog, hard cold periods aren’t generally seen until week 3 in November but don’t really happen regularly until January. Keep focused on disease management. The next 8 weeks are crucial, get it right now and you go into the 2020 season in a really strong position, get it wrong and you begin that awkward process of trying to generate recovery when the conditions just aren’t there.

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